Decision-Making Models Essay -- Decision-Making Model Analysis

Decision-Making Models General assumptions create the foundation of a person's reasoning. Imperfections with a supposition can create the opportunity for a skewed perspective in a person's reasoning process (Paul & Elder, 2002). The process of choosing one course of action over another is commonly known as decision making. Consciously or unconsciously, people make decisions on a daily basis founded on one or more of the various decision-making models (Sullivan, n.d.). This paper examines how I apply various decision-making models in the workplace to generate accurate workload estimations in my career. The Qualitative Choice Theory also known as analogous reasoning uses past experience to help an individual make decisions. A resolution is derived by looking at what has occurred historically and basing the decision on the expected outcome (Arsham, 1994). The Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) methodology is a decision-making model that uses a mathematical formula established on realistic, pessimistic, and optimistic estimates to provide an accurate estimate of the most likely amount of time to complete a project (â€Å"Critical path analysis & pert charts,† n.d.). Building on the analogous methodology, the parametric decision-making model looks at one small piece of a project, estimates the amount of time required to complete the particular section of the project, and multiplies the smaller piece times the number of total pieces (International Society of Parametric Analysts, 1999). The Monte Carlo simulation is a technique that makes use of computer models to aid in making decisions in intricate circumstances (Grambow, n.d.). My duties at work often require that I provide estimations for the level of effort required for projects I am working on and I employ all three of the aforementioned decision-making methodologies. More often than not, I rely on the analogous model drawing on my experience as a subject matter expert to create time estimates for small projects. Drawing on more than 5 years of programming experience, I am able create realistic estimates of the level of effort required to complete a small project. I use this methodology when asked to estimate simple text changes to the user interface for Web pages I maintain. For example, a client has just requested a change to the welcome page of his Web site and has committed to provide text... ...Retrieved June 20, 2005, from The University of Baltimore Web site: http://home.ubalt.edu/ ntsbarsh/opre640/partXIII.htm Bassham, G., Irwin, W., Nardone, H., & Wallace, J.M. (2002). Critical thinking [Electronic Version]. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill. Critical path analysis & pert charts. (n.d.). Retrieved June 21, 2005, from http://www.work911.com/cgi-bin/links/jump.cgi?ID=4532 International Society of Parametric Analysts. (1999). Parametric estimating initiative (pei) parametric estimating handbook: Company developed models (chap. 4). Retrieved June 20, 2005, from http://www.ispa-cost.org/PEIWeb/ch4.htm Grambo, M. (n.d.). Monte carlo analysis. Retrieved June 22, 2005, from The University of Scranton Web site: http://academic.uofs.edu/ faculty/gramborw/tumonte.htm Paul, R. & Elder, L. (2002). Critical thinking: Tools for taking charge of your professional and personal life [Electronic Version]. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice-Hall. Sullivan, M. (n.d.). Problem solving, decision making and critical thinking. Retrieved June 20, 2005, from Villanova University Web site: http://www52.homepage.villanova.edu/maureen.sullivan/ coursematerial/L&M_Notes/ProblemSolving.htm